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Canadian Immigration

Canada’s Federal Election results

Canada’s Federal Election results in Liberal minority government  

Voters headed out to the polls on October 21 for Canada’s federal election, and late last night the results were in: the Liberal Party won out with a minority government. As a result, Liberal party leader Justin Trudeau will have another term as Prime Minister of Canada. With a minority government, that means the Liberals do not hold the majority of seats in the Canadian Parliament. In this case, the out of the 338 parliamentary seats, the Liberals have 157 seats, while the other parties have a combined 181 seats. In the Canadian government, in order to pass a bill in the House of Commons, a bill needs at least 170 votes. This means that the Liberal government will need the support of another party to pass bills and policies. 

The breakdown of new Parliament seats: 

  • 157 Liberal 
  • 121 Conservative
  • 32 Bloc Quebecois 
  • 24 New Democratic Party
  • 3 Green Party 
  • 1 Other Representative 

Although the Conservative Party had the popular vote this election, Andrew Scheer and his party came just short of the Liberals, with Conservatives gaining 121 seats against the Liberals’ 157. The Bloc Quebecois gained 32 seats exclusively in Quebec. Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party (NDP) won 24 seats. Many predict that the NDP, lead by Jagmeet Singh, will hold the balance of power between parties in the future. Surprisingly, Elizabeth May’s Green Party won only 3 seats, despite projections that the party would do especially well this election. The People’s Party of Canada came out of the election with zero seats. 

The parties discussed their policies on immigration throughout the debate. For the Liberal government, their stance on immigration is maintaining the current procedures, including Express Entry and Provincial Nomination Programs, and plan to increase Canada’s immigration numbers across the board. Although the party does plan to introduce new immigration programs, like d a Municipal Nominee Program and an Atlantic Immigration Pilot. They also plan to make it free for permanent residents to apply for Canadian citizenship. 

Canadian Immigration

Increase in immigration rates and in Canadians’ approval in 2019

2019 has proven to be a promising year for immigration in Canada, both in terms of numbers and in public opinion. Estimates put Canada’s total population at 37,589,262 at the beginning of July. What’s more, between April and July, about 181,057 people joined the population. The federal government’s target is to have 331,000 newcomers enter the country by the end of the year. So far, the increase in immigrants has proven to be beneficial for the provinces. What’s more, recent public polls have evaluated Canadians’ opinions on the matter, and have shown majorly positive results. 

Increased Immigration Goal Benefiting Provinces 

From April to July of this year, Canada’s population grew by 181,057. This influx made this quarter one of the largest in Canadian population growth history. International migration made up the bulk of this growth, including returning emigrants, temporary residents, and immigrants. 

The introductions of immigrants into the Canadian population proved especially beneficial to growth in certain provinces. The following is the percentage of how much immigrants added to the population growth of each province:

  • 87.1% in Quebec
  • 85.5% in Ontario 
  • 78.2% in British Columbia 
  • 78.4% in Prince Edward Island 
  • 61.1% in Alberta 

Prince Edward Island experienced the most significant growth this quarter thanks to international migration. The provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba were also just able to finish with positive growth because of immigration. What’s more, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia were able to break even in population growth due to immigration. 

Overall, Canada’s low population is currently keeping steady thanks to the influx of newcomers. It is promising that the immigration rate in the next report (covering August to October) will be close to the April-July quarter, if not greater. 

Canadian Majority in Favour of Immigration Goals

The goal for Canadian immigration in 2019 is to have 330,800 immigrants enter the country. As the number of immigrants in the country begins to rise, the Angus Reid institute instigated a public opinion poll to gauge how Canadian citizens feel about this increase. When results of the polls were recently released, the majority of Canadians were in support of the current immigration plans. 

Specifically, the poll asked 1,522 Canadians how they felt about the government’s immigration target. The complete results of the poll were:

  • 13% felt that the target should be higher 
  • 39% felt the target was a good level
  • 40% felt the target was at too high
  • 8% stated that they were unsure

Opinions on the immigration goal seemed to vary depending on where the surveyors lived and their political affiliations. Those from the Maritimes, Quebec, Ontario, and B.C. were the most likely to say that the goal could be higher. Conversely, the majority of surveyors in the prairie provinces (Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta) felt that the goal was too high. 

Impact of the Federal Election 

The 2019 immigration goal is a significant increase from the 2018 goal of 309,800. Additionally, the Liberal government plans to increase the goal to 341,000 newcomers in 2020. These increasing immigration goals are a part of the government’s multi-year immigration levels plan. 

The results of the upcoming October 21 federal election could potentially change these future immigration plans. However, the leading political parties have not announced any intentions to drastically reduce the rate of immigration. The only party that intends to reduce the immigration rate is the People’s Party of Canada, which currently is the lowest in popularity among Canadian voters.

Popularity surveys have shown that Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is just ahead of Andrew Scheer’s Conservative Party. The New Democratic Party (NDP), headed by Jagmeet Singh, is quickly gaining popularity among voters. Next in the running is Elizabeth May’s Green Party, followed by the Bloc Québécois, and finally the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). All parties have released their platforms detailing how they plan to approach Canadian immigration.

Canadian Immigration

What the Federal Debate had to say about Canadian immigration 

The 2019 Federal Leaders Debate, which took place on October 7, surprisingly covered very little in regards to Canadian immigration. However, that is not to say that immigration has no part to play in this year’s federal election. There is still much to talk about in terms of the immigration topics that came up during the debate. What’s more, all of the respective political parties’ have released the details of their platforms, and each party has its own respective plan for Canada’s future in immigration. 

Immigration Talk at the Debate 

When the topic of immigration was brought up during the debate, the candidate who had the most to say was Maxime Bernier. Bernier is the leader of the far-right People’s Party of Canada.  He is the only party leader who had openly spoken against immigration in Canada. Bernier stated that he wants to reduce Canada’s immigrant intake to 150,00 yearly, which is less than half of the current rate of 331,000 yearly newcomers. Additionally, Bernier emphasized a desire to increase the number of economic immigrants.  

During the debate, Bernier stated that Canada receives the “equivalent of one Nova Scotia every three years” in immigrant numbers. Bernier seemed to imply that this number was too high, however, Nova Scotia’s population accounts for only 3% of Canda, housing less than 960,000 residents. Considering factors such as emigration, an ageing population, and a declining birth rate, it is questionable whether Canada would be able to sustain and grow at Bernier’s proposed immigration rate of 150,000 a year. 

The other political leaders at the debate were quick to disagree with Bernier. Many of the leaders pointed out the “hate rhetoric” that Bernier often engages with, both in his campaign and in his social media. Prime Minister and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau accused Bernier of attempting to generate a “fear of the other” within the Canadian public. Meanwhile, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer  

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May drew attention the contradiction with Bernier’s plan to only allow 150,000 immigrants to total and focus on economic immigrants. May pointed out that Canada accepted more than 159,000 economic immigrants in 2017. 

As it stands, Bernier is currently the candidate with the least amount of voter support. Bernier was invited to the debate due to his popularity in just a few ridings.

Party Platforms on Immigration

Since immigration was not heavily discussed during the Federal Leaders Debate, it is not surprising that some people might be wondering where the parties’ stand on the issue. Thankfully, all of the parties have released their political platforms which include their proposed immigration policies.

The Bloc Quebecois

The Bloc Quebecois has always upheld a Quebec-centered approach to its policies. As a result, the party’s immigration goals prioritize Quebec interests. For instance, if elected, the party would introduce a bill which requires that anyone who applies for citizenship in Quebec to have “sufficient” French language skills. The party also would like to make it a requirement for the federal government to give Quebec the authority to reject federal refugee policies and to control permanent residence conditions. The Bloc Quebecois has also stated that the party will suspend the United States’ and Canada’s Safe Third Country Agreement. 

The Conservative Party 

As for the Conservative Party, their immigration policies would include recognizing credentials, improving language training, and helping skilled foreign workers apply for applicable professions more easily. The party is also putting border security and illegal immigration from the United States as a high priority. They would seek to renegotiate the Safe-Third Country Agreement, hire more border guards, and have Immigration and Refugee Board judges move to areas of common illegal border crossing. The party aims to work with the provinces to work out any immigration issues, with a focus on Quebec and the potential to settle the Canada-Quebec Accord on Immigration.

The Green Party

The Green Party immigration plans include providing better funding to give newcomers language training. They also plan on ensuring that immigrants are properly informed of the licensing requirements needed for their new Canadian careers. The party seeks to get rid of the Temporary Foreign Workers Program. Instead, they intend to focus on immigration creating easier paths to permanent residency. With regards to Canada’s Safe Third Country Agreement with the U.S., the Green Party would seek to terminate the agreement. 

The Liberal Party 

As for the Liberal Party, if reelected they have several immigration plans in mind. These include proposals for an Atlantic Immigration Pilot and a Municipal Nominee Program. They also propose a plan to make applying for Canadian citizenship free for permanent residents by 2023-24. 

The New Democratic Party

For the NDP party, they plan to address gaps in immigration settlement services. They plan to collaborate with provinces to accomplish this. Additionally, the party would like to reduce the backlogs of families who have yet to be reunified through immigration. They would also seek to remove restrictions for applicants to sponsor their parents and grandparents. 

The People’s Party of Canada 

As stated previously, the People’s Party is the only in the election looking to reduce the actual number of immigrants. The party wants to reduce to just 150,000 immigrants and refugees accepted into Canada yearly. The party is also looking to criminalize birth tourism.

The federal election will be taking place across Canada on October 21.